OPINION — For the reason that starting of the battle in Ukraine, I’ve discovered the acquainted rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s proper to self-defense towards Russian aggression harking back to the discourse that adopted America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I fearful that Ukraine may expertise the identical trajectory: beneficiant assist early on, adopted by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The sample of improvement of dependency—the place the supported authorities is unable to maintain itself with out steady support—will be deeply damaging and go away a nation weak.
Regrettably, as an alternative of using America’s affect to result in an early diplomatic decision to the Ukraine battle, President Joe Biden escalated army assist, contributing to a chronic and more and more complicated battle. Ukraine has since develop into closely reliant on U.S. monetary support, weapons, and intelligence. But this assist has typically appeared unstable, sometimes threatened by inner U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt assist, a place that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This rising reliance locations Kyiv in a weak place—strikingly much like the scenario Kabul confronted through the U.S.-Taliban negotiations underneath President Trump’s first time period. The U.S. held huge leverage in each conflicts and thus bore a big accountability for his or her outcomes. As somebody who was concerned within the Afghanistan peace course of and follows Ukraine peace efforts intently, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the best way American politics are actually shaping Ukraine’s destiny.
President Trump has expressed robust curiosity in resolving the battle in Ukraine and has forged himself as a “President of Peace.” Because the chief of probably the most highly effective nation on the planet, he does possess the flexibility to affect the battle’s trajectory. Nevertheless, the vital query stays: what sort of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the result in Afghanistan, the place the U.S. successfully handed over energy to the very group accountable for the 9/11 assaults, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. should proceed with authority—not one other “Doha-style” deal which might ship harmful alerts globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and at last associate.
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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:
There are a number of notable parallels between the U.S. strategy to the Afghanistan peace course of and its present involvement within the Ukraine battle. Whereas the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation ways, remedy of allies, and use of leverage reveal putting similarities. These shared dynamics provide necessary classes—classes that, if ignored, may result in repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:
1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S.-Led Talks:
President Putin’s refusal to have interaction immediately with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting as an alternative on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s place through the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations completely with the USA earlier than any engagement with the Afghan authorities. This tactic successfully marginalized the nationwide authorities, granting the Taliban better legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, ought to Russia safe a take care of Washington that renders the U.S. impartial or much less engaged, it will seemingly tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed an analogous shift in Afghanistan, the place repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion had been dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall a number of conferences on the presidential palace in Kabul, the place Ambassador Khalilzad emphasised that “the U.S. doesn’t want anybody’s permission to barter with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative turned a rhetorical weapon to close down legitimate issues about an orderly and inclusive peace course of.
2. Public Discrediting of Allies:
One other shared sample is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan authorities—particularly President Ashraf Ghani—for being an impediment to peace, slightly than acknowledging legit issues. Ghani’s polarizing management type made him a straightforward goal, permitting Khalilzad’s narrative to achieve traction amongst Afghan elites and the general public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officers, together with the President, has at instances appeared dismissive or vital of the Ukrainian authorities. This public framing will be damaging. It echoes the stress confronted by the Afghan authorities to make main concessions—reminiscent of the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—regardless of warnings from Afghan management. In each instances, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of associate forces and given adversaries the higher hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed on to the collapse of state constructions and army cohesion. Language issues. Classes from Afghanistan ought to inform a extra cautious, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.
3. Conditioning Assist and Misusing Leverage:
Threats to droop assist for Ukraine, don’t advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage must be used to finish violence, not danger enabling it. Any withdrawal of support must be tied to the profitable cessation of hostilities and institution of a viable simply peace. In any other case, efforts at diplomacy danger failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” might as an alternative be remembered as a geopolitical failure.
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Suggestions:
Based mostly on the teachings realized from Afghanistan, the next suggestion is essential for avoiding related pitfalls in Ukraine:
Firstly, the U.S. should keep away from the vital mistake made through the Afghanistan peace course of—negotiating immediately with adversaries whereas sidelining legit nationwide governments. Within the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan authorities and the Afghan individuals from early levels of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and finally led to the collapse of the Afghan state. This strategy not solely demoralized U.S. allies but additionally delegitimized them within the eyes of their very own individuals and the worldwide neighborhood. In Ukraine, the USA should undertake a distinct course. Any peace initiative should place the Ukrainian authorities and the individuals of Ukraine on the middle of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of selections made elsewhere, however as an energetic, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved with out the consent and management of each side of the battle—the Ukrainian individuals and its adversaries—will likely be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.
Secondlypublic messaging should mirror respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, whereas signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doorways, undermines belief, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity will be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, because it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine deserves a peace course of that’s inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world can’t afford a repeat of the Kabul state of affairs—the place allies had been sidelined, and adversaries gaining upper-hand. The U.S. management, as at all times, have to be principled, constant, and anchored in classes realized from previous missteps. If managed correctly, the peace course of in Ukraine may certainly mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not solely because the associate to depend on however as a negotiator with making the appropriate deal.
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