We’re 5 weeks into the NFL season and a lot has modified. Groups we thought have been absolute locks to problem for a Tremendous Bowl have been wracked by harm and unhealthy efficiency, whereas others no one anticipated to be good have stepped up.
At this time we’re diving into the groups who’ve made statements to begin the season and we expect have an actual shot of creating all of it the way in which to the Tremendous Bowl this yr. It’s a fairly wild record, so buckle up.
That is actually beginning to really feel just like the yr the Payments can put all of it collectively. Certain, you’ll be able to level to their shocking loss to the Patriots on Monday Evening Soccerhowever divisional video games can at all times be bizarre and unpredictable.
After we get all the way down to brass tacks the Payments are the one group from the AFC elite who legitimately look nearly as good as we thought they’d be through the season. The slight fear is that as we take a look at their schedule they’ve performed quite a lot of unhealthy soccer groups which have enabled them to look good. The Ravens protection is a multitude, and the much less we are saying in regards to the Saints, Jets, and Dolphins the higher.
That stated, the Payments have two large issues going for them: They haven’t been bitten considerably by the harm bug, and Josh Allen nonetheless exists. So long as Allen is wholesome this group will at all times have a shot to compete, and in contrast to previous years it’s wanting increasingly more like they gained’t really want to fret in regards to the Chiefs or Ravens this season in a big means.
There isn’t any motive the Chargers shouldn’t have the ability to compete for a Tremendous Bowl — exterior of the large caveat that their offensive line is having massive time points with the harm to Rashawn Slater, and in some ways they’re nonetheless dealing with that.
Nonetheless, it’s robust to jot down off this group. Jim Harbaugh has everybody shopping for into his model of soccer, Justin Herbert is enjoying ludicrously effectively, and the protection is holding up sufficient to maintain them in each recreation. It the Chargers can simply discover a means of hitting one other gear on offense then they’ll be a playoff group to be extraordinarily apprehensive about within the AFC.
This will occur. It’s nearly how this group pivots within the subsequent few weeks.
The adage “protection wins championships” applies right here. Denver made a giant time assertion in beating Philadelphia, and that confirmed they’ve what it takes to be thought of among the many finest within the NFL this season.
What the Broncos lack in family names they make up by having gamers tailor made to suit Sean Payton’s system, and this group is getting the job executed. Bo Nix is way from an elite quarterback, however he’s such a very good match for Payton that they’re making this work very well. This group will hold profitable as long as the Broncos protection guarantee the sport by no means reaches some extent the place Nix has to throw his means again right into a recreation.
That’s exactly what’s taking place, with Denver rating 2nd within the NFL in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, 1st in speeding touchdowns allowed, and solely permitting 16.8 factors per recreation. It’s all coming collectively, and this group could be very harmful.
We’ve executed this dance earlier than. Counting the Chiefs out at any level is simply silly, as a result of this group at all times finds a means by all of it. Certain, they may not look spectacular proper now at 2-3, however there’s quite a lot of season to go.
There are apparent points right here the group must button up. No one has stepped as much as grow to be a dependable weapon for Patrick Mahomes, however he’s additionally forcing the ball greater than he usually does, desperately attempting to make performs occur the place they don’t exist. There’s additionally main questions in regards to the self-discipline, with the Chiefs basically beating themselves with dumb penalties and miscues in opposition to the Jaguars in Week 5.
When the mud settles the Chiefs will discover a means. It’s simply what they do.
Is it time to begin believing within the Jaguars?
Jacksonville started the yr 2-1, with wins over the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans and a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, in a recreation began by Joe Burrow and completed by Jake Browning.
Sure, the identical Cincinnati Bengals that simply traded for Joe Flacco.
That was not a formidable begin to the season, however wins the previous two weeks over the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have definitely modified the narrative. Specifically, a comeback win over a Chiefs group desperately trying to find their very own assertion win is worthy of reward.
Jacksonville seems to have purchased into Liam Coen, the protection is among the finest within the league in accordance with Anticipated Factors Added per Play, and if Monday’s win is any indication Trevor Lawrence is discovering methods to make use of his legs extra to assist this offense. In a wide-open AFC, the Jaguars have a shot at making a deep run.
Talking of time to consider…
Every week Ben Baldwin, the thoughts behind RBSDM.comproduces a bunch of graphics utilizing NFL information. A kind of is the “Workforce Tiers” graphic, which seems at each EPA/Play on offense and protection to type groups into tiers.
Main the way in which after 5 weeks? Your Indianapolis Colts:
Sure, a part of this is perhaps a perform of who the Colts have performed. In any case, three of their 4 wins have come in opposition to the Dolphins, the Raiders, and the Titans, three groups with a mixed 3-12 report.
However a win over the Broncos, a slim loss to the Rams, and these numbers, present that the Colts are for actual.
It’s the Eagles, do we actually must say rather more right here? Whereas it’s definitely true that Philly doesn’t look practically as dominant as they did a yr in the past, notably on offense — the actual fact is that no one seems notably nice this season to the purpose the place we will name them a favourite definitively.
Approach an excessive amount of is being product of Philly shedding to Denver, which was a shock — however the Broncos are only a very strong group. There actually hasn’t been a single “gimme” on this group’s schedule thus far, and so they’re nonetheless 4-1. The margins could also be smaller in 2025 than they have been a yr in the past, however this stays one of many premiere groups within the NFL and somebody who will be an element within the playoffs.
Coming into the season there have been quite a lot of questions on whether or not the Lions would nonetheless be elite. That occurs whenever you lose each coordinators to go teaching jobs and must do some retooling within the teaching workers. 5 weeks in these questions have evaporated, and Detroit is simply nearly as good as ever.
This can be a group that has so many strengths it’s tough to seek out an efficient technique to problem them. The run recreation is there, Jared Goff nonetheless performs unimaginable soccer with out Ben Johnson as his OC, and on protection the Lions aren’t fairly top-tier, however definitely ok to again up their highly effective offense.
It takes quite a lot of effort to get previous Detroit. Now they’ve discovered their footing the sport to circle will probably be their subsequent matchup with the Packers on November 27.
The Packers regarded like they is perhaps the most effective group in all the NFL, then they performed all the way down to their opponents by shedding to the Browns and tying with the Cowboys in back-to-back weeks. It’s nonetheless protected to say that Inexperienced Bay remains to be very, superb — and hopefully the bye week allowed a little bit of a reset the place they’ll present their potential as soon as extra.
Jordan Love is a wonderful quarterback who must contribute just a few extra explosive performs to really lock him in among the many NFL’s elite tier of quarterbacks. That stated, he’s exceptionally good at caring for the soccer — which is essential now this group appears centered closely on bullying groups on protection and conserving video games shut.
When you will have a quarterback like Love, a operating again like Josh Jacobs, and Micah Parsons within the move rush you then’re going to be within the combine. It’s that straightforward.
The 49ers are such a bizarre group, however credit score the place it’s due: As injured and beat up as they’ve been San Francisco hasn’t caved in any respect, and boast a 4-1 report in opposition to the chances.
Probably the greatest coached groups within the NFL, it makes you marvel how good the Niners may be when everyone seems to be again and wholesome? Brock Purdy performed some iffy soccer earlier than being damage, however he ought to be again to kind when he recovers from turf toe in just a few extra weeks.
It’s been far too straightforward to jot down off the 49ers this season, however they refuse to be ignored and that stage of competitiveness is what each championship group wants.
Is that this the yr they break by? It very effectively may very well be. The Bucs basically hold operating again the identical components on offense, but it surely’s going to work till somebody stops it. Tampa has massive, bodily receivers that merely out-muscle gamers for the ball, and have each separation and catch radius expertise that mitigate Baker Mayfield’s typically questionable accuracy.
Defensively is the place the Bucs are struggling, as they permit quite a lot of factors and are actually mediocre in opposition to the move. The flipside is that Baker Mayfield simply has that edge required to step up and make performs when his group wants them, and by no means quits on the sport.
Whereas removed from being a favourite within the NFC, don’t rely out Tampa Bay.
Vikings followers studying this piece are prepared with a cautionary story.
Don’t belief Sam Darnold.
A yr in the past, the Vikings regarded like among the finest groups within the NFC, led by the veteran journeyman. However a debacle in Week 18 relegated Minnesota to one of many Wild Card spots (as an alternative of doubtless the No. 1 seed within the convention) and the Vikings misplaced to the Rams on the street the next week.
Now, Darnold is in Seattle and the Seahawks are 3-2, with their two losses approaching a mixed seven factors to San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Their offense is among the many league’s finest in EPA/Play, even with Darnold within the fold. There are some points to type out on the defensive aspect of the ball if that is going to really be a Tremendous Bowl contender, however that’s what Mike Macdonald was delivered to Seattle to do.
The most important hurdle right here is the schedule. Seattle’s remaining opponents have a mixed profitable share of .559, one of many hardest slates left within the league.
For now, the Commanders stay on this record.
Some may discover it laborious to make heads or tails out of Washington. Are they the group that went on the street this previous weekend and cruised to a 27-10 win over the Chargers? Or the group that regarded somewhat pedestrian in losses to the Packers and Falcons, and whose solely different wins are over the Russell Wilson-led Giants and the Raiders?
However these on the lookout for optimism will level to the return of Jayden Daniels in final week’s win, the approaching return of Terry McLaurin, and one of many league’s best offenses as a motive to consider:
Others will level at a tough schedule (Washington has two video games in opposition to the Eagles, two video games in opposition to the Cowboys, and video games in opposition to Seattle, Detroit, and Denver remaining) and declare that the wins are going to be more durable to come back by down the stretch.
But when the Commanders come out of this schedule on the opposite aspect with a playoff berth, they’ll have confirmed their price.
The priority in Los Angeles heading into the season was the standing of Matthew Stafford’s again.
Via 5 video games, that again appears simply advantageous.
The Rams are 3-2, and there is perhaps some frustration in Los Angeles that the report will not be higher. An additional time loss to the 49ers, coupled with a loss to the Eagles the place the Rams allowed a pair of blocked discipline targets, are the 2 blemishes. However with Stafford enjoying in addition to he’s proper now (the veteran quarterback is fifth within the NFL with an Adjusted Internet Yards per Try of 8.22) and an environment friendly protection (Los Angeles is sixth within the NFL in defensive EPA/Go) the Rams are within the combine.
